At Tuesday’s Phoenix City Council policy session meeting, the council discussed several topics surrounding the impact of COVID-19, including a briefing by ASU Biodesign and an update on the economy. The highlights of the meeting are listed below.
Update on COVID-19 in Arizona
Tim Lant, a mathematical epidemiologist at Arizona State University with a doctorate in applied mathematics, addressed Phoenix City Council regarding potential scenarios and projections of COVID-19. Lant also leads the COVID-19 Modeling Task Force for ASU. As of April 27, cases and testing are both increasing in Arizona, according to Lant. However, He said that cases were not appearing as quickly as before. “We have reached a plateau of sorts, so it’s leveled off and we certainly aren’t increasing as fast as we were,” he said. The soonest the country can consider re-opening is May 11 under ideal conditions, but Lant said that for now it appears social distancing measures in Arizona are decreasing the rate of hospitalizations and deaths. Key areas to look at in order to plan ahead are public safety, underreporting/a lack of testing, the severity of the disease (including the spread of asymptomatic cases) and the potential effects of summer weather. “We don’t know exactly what’s going to happen this summer, in terms of the epidemiology of this disease, so there are a number of factors that we’re watching as the heat comes,” he said.
Projections for COVID-19
In order to reopen, states need to meet the following criteria: 1. A downward trajectory of flu-like illnesses and COVID-like symptomatic cases reported within a two-week period. 2. A downward trajectory of documented cases within a two-week period OR a downward trajectory of positive tests out of all tests done within that period. 3. Hospitals must treat all patients without crisis care and have a robust testing program in place for at-risk healthcare workers, including antibody testing, according to Lant. States should use the aforementioned criteria in order to keep the case count controlled for that two-week period. It is important to keep in mind that “the coronavirus is a disease that we can’t eliminate, but we have to manage,” Lant said. In Arizona, growth has slowed and cases are in the low hundreds per day. Since the reported case numbers are not growing exponentially, policies are “clearly working,” Lant said, adding that at this time “this is not an out-of-control pandemic.” In essence, in order to re-open the state, the new case count needs to be kept as low as possible through social distancing measures and by providing enough tests.
Economic Recovery
“If we look at the economy, the global pandemic has shifted the economy and challenged the economy in ways not seen since World War II,” Community and Economic Development Director Christine Mackay said at the meeting. “To put it in perspective for you, we’ve now lost all of the jobs we’ve gained since the Great Recession on its ending.” There is no precedent on how to handle the severity of this situation. Mackay said that in terms of unemployment, there have been a total of 579,316 unemployment claims in Arizona from March 15 to April 18. The week of April 18 alone saw more than 72,000 claims, which paid out $150.9 million in that one week. The pandemic harshly affects the small businesses (defined as a company with less than 250 employees) in Arizona, which make up 99.4% of all businesses in the state, according to Mackay. Most small businesses hold less than one month of expenses in reserve, meaning it will be hard for owners to keep businesses open as the pandemic continues. Mackay said that about two-thirds of Arizona businesses are not expected to receive the federal Paycheck Protection Program funds. Just over one-third (1.1 million) of all Arizona jobs will also be considered at risk of permanent termination over the next three months. In addition, MacKay said it is estimated that 20-25% of small businesses in Phoenix will not exist after the pandemic ends. Mackay outlined the following factors to be helpful for economic recovery: strengthening small business assistance, existing and new workforce programs, leveraging sector partnerships, marketing outreach, ensuring new development and construction, and continued business outreach.
Contact the reporter at hrein@asu.edu
Hailey Rein is the Education Editor at Downtown Devil and a senior at the Walter Cronkite School of Journalism and Mass communications. In addition, she is a digital producer at azcentral.com and The Arizona Republic. In her free time, she enjoys being with her dogs and watching a rom-com.
