(Photo by Matt York/AP Photo)

Madison Bumgarner is a name that tends to strike fear into the hearts of hitters.

Not only is he one of the most dominant pitchers of this generation, but he is also one of the best postseason pitchers of all time. His performances in the 2010, 2012, 2014 and 2016 MLB postseason solidify him as one of the greatest postseason pitchers of all time.

His 2.11 career postseason earned run average broken down by round features a 0.00 ERA in Wild Card Games, and a 0.25 ERA in the World Series.

During his tenure as a San Francisco Giant, he put up a 3.13 ERA across 286 starts, tallying close to 1,800 strikeouts.

Bumgarner’s five-year, $35 million contract expired after the 2019 season. It was almost guaranteed that he would not return to the Giants, providing a lot of speculation as to where he would land. Teams like the Yankees, and the defending champion Nationals were potential landing spots for the southpaw.

Out of nowhere, the Arizona Diamondbacks signed Bumgarner to a five-year, $85 million contract.

The Diamondbacks were hoping he would be an anchor in their rotation and the centerpiece in a run at the postseason in 2020 and beyond. The outcome after two full seasons in Arizona has been less than ideal.

In the shortened 2020 season, Bumgarner’s numbers were some of the worst in his career, as he finished with a 6.48 ERA over nine starts. He never ended a season with an ERA over four in his career to that point.

The 2021 season wasn’t much better, but Bumgarner is far from what he used to be. Through 26 starts this season, he posted a 4.67 ERA and a WHIP of 1.18. Over the past few seasons, Bumgarner’s main issue has been home runs. This season he gave up 24 after surrendering a career-high 30 in 2019 and 13 in 2020.

Diamondbacks fans got a taste of vintage Bumgarner during a stretch in August. In his first four starts of the month, he tossed 28.2 innings and only allowed six earned runs in that span.

Arguably the best moment of his ongoing Arizona tenure came on April 25 this season in Atlanta. In a seven-inning doubleheader game, Bumgarner tossed the first and only seven-inning complete game without allowing a hit. The “no-hitter” stands out as one of the best moments of the year for the Diamondbacks.

Even with the brief glimpses of light, Bumgarner’s struggles don’t have a pattern to them. Almost every advanced stat under the sun lines up with years past. None of them are far off from his greatest years in San Francisco, making it even more strange that he is seemingly having a bad year.

The stat that stands out the most is “solid percentage.” A solidly hit ball according to Baseball Savant is, “well above average in terms of offensive production.” Bumgarner has a career-high 8% solid percentage in 2021. The second highest he had was in 2020, the shortened 60-game season, where it was at 7.1%. His previous high was 5.3%, which he touched in both 2016 and 2019.

The steady increase in solid contact percentage could coincide with Bumgarner’s decline. The increase in this number is also likely due to his small decrease in velocity over the last three years.

Here are the average velocities for Bumgarner’s pitches in 2019:

Fastball: 91.4 mph

Sinker: 92.2 mph

Cutter: 87.2 mph

Changeup: 84.2 mph

Curveball: 78.8 mph

Compare those to the average velocities in 2021:

Fastball: 90.4 mph

Sinker: 89.9 mph

Cutter: 86 mph

Changeup: 83.8 mph

Curveball: 77.8 mph

While those numbers may not be game-changing, they are important enough to cause a shift in his game. For a guy who doesn’t throw very hard, control and finesse are important. Bumgarner had never seen such a big drop-off on those top three pitches over a three-year span in his career.

That alone makes him more hittable, but Bumgarner’s pitches haven’t gained more movement over that period to make them more deceptive either. Therefore, he is throwing the same pitches he always has, just not as hard.

That aspect of Bumgarner’s game may not be fixable. Unless he finds a way to add more movement to his pitches, he is simply going to become more hittable as his velocity goes down.

That being said, Bumgarner still remains one of the best pitchers on the Diamondbacks’ staff. In the final three years of his contract, should he remain in Arizona, he can serve as a mentor for some of the younger pitchers on the staff and in the organization.

While his days as a starter with a K/9 of 9.00 are behind him, he still has the potential to stifle any lineup. If he can get back to the form from his days with the Giants, the Diamondbacks will have a superstar atop their rotation.

Contact the reporter at mgaraffa@asu.edu.